Just How Bad Are TEC’s 2008 Numbers?

I give thanks for Bible Belt Blogger’s persistence, but unfortunately to no avail!  I suspect that if the numbers were a positive sign, they would be available on every blog, website and news conference.  Of course, one can only infer given no facts were offered, but I choose to infer that there has been a DECREASE in the ASA numbers.
What sayest thou?

While the hard numbers are not available the graph charts are now reflecting 2008 numbers.

But if you think 2008 is bad, just wait til you see 2009…

This is the irony of TEC.  It can win court battles, but it can’t hold people.  It fights for control of the bridge even as the hull fills with water.

carl

Still padding the numbers…hold on almost done. Don’t forget to count the graves located in the stolen properties.
Intercessor

Frank Lockwood is awesome.  I expect the figures will be released along with details of sums spent on litigation, the source of those funds including trust funds and how much has been gobbled by Beers and his partners.

Truth will always out in my experience - someone will always spill the beans, as our government knows.

Mind you, you should see the CofE figures: hopelessly behind, poorly reported, insufficiently detailed and for practical purposes largely useless.  I have always found TEC figure collection and presentation to be much more useful and something we could learn from, including those dinky graphs with blue, red and green lines going down down and up respectively.

I recall the following post from Matt a few days ago:

....Dylan reports that the EC is presently discussing some very “serious issues” and that the council members are “thinking outside the box” trying to problem solve…

I wonder what they are discussing?

To which I responded:

On a serious note, does anyone have any clues on what these “serious issues” are?  Are they related to budget?  Are they debating about whether to go after Mark Lawrence?

Anytime you hear that an institution like TEC is dealing with “serious problems” by trying to “think outside the box” it usually means that there is a problem which they don’t know how to solve and they are trying to figure out what positive spin to put on it.  Knowing what this is could be very important.

I think we just got our answer.  The fact that they continue to refuse to answer Mr. Lockwood’s questions and are telling him that it won’t be discussed till “next meeting” suggests that nobody on EC was able to come up with a positive spin on the numbers.

I bet the numbers are really really bad and will only get worse.

If they are bad, they are bad today, bad tomorrow, and bad the day after.  Why hold on to them?

“There might not be a lot of people, but at least they are liberal and progressive.  Right in our target demographic.”

I’ve wondered the same thing.  It looks though, as if the parish numbers (here, e.g.,)
have been released, but the diococean numbers have not (?).

- Elder Oyster
Member, Anglican Not-Ready-For-Prime-Time Blogger Society (ANFoPTiBS), and
Member, Episcopal Diocese of Southern Ohio (that’s “DSO”, for the Rest Of Us)

Yep - the figures for 2009 will be worse as many in my parish had stipulations that absolutly NONE of their pledge leave the parish - ditto for this year’s 2010 pledge with even more parishoners placing similar stipulations.  Creative financing has finally reached the hinterland and hopefully the continuing budget shortfalls of TEC will wake up the remaining Orthodox among us to help shut 815 down.  I pray for a future Presiding Bishop who is Christ-Centered and theologically Orthodox.  One can hope.

I know that myself and Herr Doktor Statmann are definitely waiting with bated breath.

Gene Robinson stated that his diocese is now “growing.” Really, would like to see whether he is talking attendance vs membership.

Note that 2006 was a Christmas effect year and 2007 wasn’t. Thus, the drop in 2007 was magnified somewhat. 2008 is not, so the comparison of 2007 to 2008 will be “real”.

Parish numbers are out…not bad everywhere and next year may be better! Dare I say some places are recovering…? Hope springs eternal!

http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_108200974817PM.pdf

http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_108200975255PM.pdf

http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_108200975758PM.pdf

http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_108200980031PM.pdf

http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_108200980206PM.pdf

http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_108200980449PM.pdf

Blessings

Seraph

“For some reason” when I try to see the Diocese of Pittsburgh numbers it sends me to the Diocese of Atlanta. . .

Doiocesan numbers here:
http://12.0.101.92/Charts.aspx

I note that the small decline last year at All Saints, Pasadena is larger: http://tinyurl.com/yh9l6py .

That is good news. Still the church is huge and too many are being deceived.

Other good news: Elizabeth Kaeton’s parish’s attendance is down again: http://tinyurl.com/yz8scmn

Puhl-eeze, do you honestly believe the cadre that runs TEC gives a fig about losing members?  If anything, losing members helps them gain control of the machine.  Also, as normal people leave, the % of GLBT people in the church increases, which is addition by subtraction in the New Episcopal church.

The Pittsburgh chart is there.  It still lists all the parishes of the undivided diocese, which I guess is understandable since the division took place in October.  However they obviously didn’t get numbers from the departing parishes so they simply repeated the 2007 numbers.  Next year they will have to lop off about 50 parishes so the numbers will indeed look much worse…

I checked a few days ago and it appears +Bruno is still counting the parishes that left for ACNA.  So the numbers are worse than they will report.

Next year they will have to lop off about 50 parishes.—#18

Don’t count on it.

As long as any dispute exists over parish property, we’ll see the church-statistics equivalent of King George III calling himself King of France.

I find the “baptized members” number very interesting.  What it seems to indicate beyond the “Hotel California” effect is that people love to breeze into a nice Episcopal Church and then get on with their lives.  There is a point - that was passed some time ago - where it just looks ridiculous to put the two numbers together.  It is patently obvious that people don’t see the institution as meaningful if only 20% show up after baptism.  But then again, as long as you’re baptized your eligible to become a bishop.  It would be wrong to deny you a path to ordination merely because you never actually go to church.

I’m guessing they’ve dropped below 2 million…but all is well.

The diocese can fudge all they like, but our tiny parish is down 10% in ASA since last year.

[22] Nikolaus

I’m guessing they’ve dropped below 2 million…but all is well.

Well, of course all is well.  The numbers may be dropping, but the mean IQ of TEC is increasing.  No unsophisticated breeders around to foul up the wine-and-cheese parties. Plus, the ratio of laity to lawyers will soon fall to 10:1.  How much more upscale can you get than a church of lawyers?

carl

hey, don’t knock the wine and cheese parties—some of us orthodox like ‘em!

<blockquote>No unsophisticated breeders around to foul up the wine-and-cheese parties.<blockquote>
And no need to worry about whether the children will be seen and heard at the whine and cheese party because there are none!

I wonder how accurate the 2008 numbers are. There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of movement in many of the dioceses to warrant concern. I did a random check, and some appear to be the same as the year before.

Ever heard of “THE SQUID INK DEFENSE AND WARNING”?

As our P.B. would be all too aware of, when squid are threatened they squirt ink at the threat, making the water cloudy, while overwhelming the senses of the predator and providing the lowly squid the time needed to make an escape.

However, a very recent study also discovered that squirting ink also serves the purpose of warning other squids that they need to make a getaway.  You can read about it at: http://www.cas.gsu.edu/storycache/pdf/290Squidinkis.pdf

Of course, this is metaphorically speaking seeing that we all know that there is no room in Episcopal Church for literalism. Right? ;^)

ASA 2 million?  TEC? More like 700,000 and that is doubtless a bad number.

Surprised to hear Liz Kaeton’s “parish” is declining in size. Doubtless the great inrush of LBGT converts was over looked in the census.

Robroy, why is it good news that the parishes you name have declining numbers?  I realize you don’t like them, but if your statement is typical of others you make, why would I want to go to a parish of which YOU are a member?

I noted that Pennsylvania, Los Angeles, and Ohio all report the departed parishes as being part of their tabulations. The remarkable part is that they show flat membership, attendance, and income since 2003!

Hi Dallasite,

I won’t speak for robroy…but for me…Thanks be to God that fewer people are attending the two churches he linked. They are pastored by false teachers who proclaim doctrines that originate in hell and if believed will lead there. So, I pray that if the current leaders are retained, that they may they continue to decline.

Taken totally out of context I know, but I got a chuckle from this one:

PRESIDING BISHOP JEFFERTS SCHORI: I, I’m sorry. I’m not able to comment on that at the moment. I don’t have it in my head.

Don’t you just hate sound bites?

The diocesan charts are more than a bit misleading, not always intentionally, but because of the way they compile statistics.  For example, while you see drops in Quincy, Ft. Worth and Pittsburgh, they look like the average drop.  That is because they count the entire membership and ASA for the dioceses until the day they left- which is to say, October or November of last year- as TEC statistics.
Something a bit less innocent is that some parishes have taken to reporting average weekly attendance as though it was ASA- that is to say, adding in weekday services as though they were additional Sunday masses.  Or, at least, so the clergy of some churches tell me, and since they are the ones filling out the forms, I assume they know what they are talking about.  Of course, TEC parishes have almost universally been counting Saturday as though it was also Sunday for quite a long while.

Robroy, why is it good news that the parishes you name have declining numbers?  I realize you don’t like them, but if your statement is typical of others you make, why would I want to go to a parish of which YOU are a member?

What Matt+ said. My present church isn’t leading people into everlasting perdition.

Simon Peter answered him, “Lord, to whom shall we go? You have the words of eternal life. We believe and know that you are the Holy One of God.”

As long as departing parishioners lead to dwindling parishes and dwindling parishes lead to real estate sales and real estate sales lead to income for TEC, why would they want to keep people coming?

Will the ACNA publish its membership, attendance and income numbers?

Just How Bad Are TEC’s 2008 Numbers

Answer - Not as bad as you were desperately hoping and praying they would be.

LtheR,
“...desperately hoping and praying” is right!
Why would we want people to miss out on the Good News, suffer, and die under this type of “teaching” and “leadership”?

I checked the charts for Atlanta, California, Chicago, Los Angeles, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, San Diego and South Carolina. Of them, the only diocese that grew was South Carolina.

For whatever reason, Northern Michigan refused to display itself.

As soon as word spreads into the general populace about the ‘new movings of the spirit’ that have overtaken the Episcopal Church since this summer’s General Convention, these trends will reverse themselves lickedysplit.

On an unrelated note, I am now selling beach front Arizona real estate.

They really only care about the #‘s from 2 standpoints; 1)public relations 2)$‘s.

The PR hurts the brand, and the $‘s declining hurts the brand.

That’s the only reason they care.  They don’t really care how many people are members, except for those 2 things.

What I notice in the churches RobRoy listed ( links did not work this morning) is the huge number of baptized showing, I guess on the rolls, compared to ASA.  I noticed the same thing at churches in other places like Dallas as well.  If your showing four thousand baptized members and barely a thousand are there on Sunday, what’s being done to bring those people back to church or are there really that many members of the church?
Does this show just how false the membership numbers for TEC might be? If so for get that 2.2 million claimed. Much closer to 800 thousand or less.

oops a space got in there. it’s forget in that next to last line.

LOCKWOOD: But presiding bishop, can you tell us what they show?
PRESIDING BISHOP JEFFERTS SCHORI: I, I’m sorry. I’m not able to comment on that at the moment. I don’t have it in my head.

…and from the Casper Journal:

“Her [the PB’s] biggest challenge as chief pastor has been reminding people that ‘what they read in the headlines isn’t the Episcopal Church.’”

You betcha.

40-
Just to assuage any fears, the N Michigan numbers were displaying a couple days ago- so I expect it is a glitch in the system.  The numbers showed a slight decline, as I recall, in membership and ASA, probably explainable by the fact that there are more funerals than baptisms in most parishes, typical of TEC.  2009 will be a bit worse, if the numbers are honest, due to folks who left during or after the bishop consent process, or those who became fed up with TEC.
If they were counting me (I never formally joined the parish here, but then, I was never asked to join the parish here- so I might show up only in ASA), then in 2009 or 10, whichever year they acknowledge my departure, the diocese ASA will go down by 0.15% (yes, that is correct, not 0.015), parish membership by 1% and parish ASA by 3%.  Which is the level of impact of each person who leaves TEC in this diocese.

Is there a way (website link?) to get the actual numbers the charts are based on?  I am a sufficient mathematician to build a little spreadsheet and add 100 numbers together.

[38] lifting the rock

Not as bad as you were desperately hoping and praying they would be.

So your argument is that TEC is not sinking as fast as expected, and from this we should conclude ... what exactly?  That TEC isn’t sinking after all?  There is an inevitable biological process at work here called ‘death.’  A church sustained by a bunch of 60-somethings will soon be a church sustained by a bunch of 80-somethings.  Unless some new people are found to fill the gaps, TEC is going to implode and implode radically.  It’s a mathematical fact.  People have to be replaced as they die, or the organization ceases to be.  TEC is busy running people off, even as it gets older and older and older.  Unless there are some new members brought in somewhere, TECs numbers in 20 years are going to be catastrophic.  Parishes and dioceses are going to start dying as if the Black Death swooped into the land.  And this is no more prophesy than saying “A rock dropped will eventually hit the floor beneath it.”

carl

Frank, we need to move on now.

Nothing to see here. 

Keep movin’. 

Stay behind the yellow tape.

Note te EC: There is a simple answer to ASA questions. Fire Dr. Hardaway. Problem solved.

Assuming that the church as the whole would have continued the 2% decline per year, and that 75% of the four dioceses left, I come up with a prediction of a 4% decline.

Keller: What is that crack supposed to mean?

I am not sure that those in command care too much about the “final” sustainable number.  TEC is doomed to be an even smaller niche church with its bases on the West Coast and Northeast - with outposts in major cities elsewhere.  After the passing of the boomer generation, The church finishes with only latte liberals, homosexuals and their close allies friends and relatives, and very liberal ex-catholics - perhaps also some ex-calvinst/baptist types that wanted a major change and yet to remain “Christian”.
The ACNA if it makes it will bleed them through attrition probably about the same pace as the grave.

I know what happened.  They filed them right next to the amount of $ they spent last year on litigation and, like the litigation costs, just can’t seem to find them.

Yeah, that’s the ticket.

For those wondering about a link to actual diocesan numbers, usually TEC releases the spreadsheet with the actual numbers in December.  So, right now all we can do is eyeball the diocesan and parish charts.

Wow,
The Central Gulf Coast’s Three Parishes I’ve been to, St. Luke’s, St. John the Baptist’s, and Trinity (Apalachicola) have all GROWN in ASA over the last three years….

I know they weren’t part of the GC09 Party Committee, maybe they really are small rural parishes that are able to make the ‘not in this parish’ thing work…...

Ya’ gotta love it:

“Bonnie Anderson, president of the church’s House of Deputies, also declined to reveal the details.”

and

“We don’t know. I mean we have it written out but we’ll be posting it I’m sure as soon as we’re, they’re, approved and available. But yes, you’ll be able to get them.”

See: Article above

and then we have Bonnie saying (emphasis added):

“After these three and a half days, I must say I am very impressed with the level of leadership skills on this council, the ability to zero in on hard questions, to speak out, to talk in plain language and tell the truth,” she said during a news teleconference held during the lunch break on October 8.

See: ENS article

As I learned in seminary, while folks can be baptized, there is no way to unbaptize someone who was baptized.

So much for “baptized members” numbers.

I’d pay more attention to the ASA figures, even if they are seriously bloated by mendacious clergy and counting parishes that used to be.

All is well.

Ken, we go around this over and over again. Membership numbers are inflated by people who are inactive but who have not yet been taken off the rolls. These tend to get purged at intervals rather than continuously. It creates a certain degree of inaccuracy and makes individual parish membership numbers unreliable, but as far as diocesan aggregate numbers are concerned, it comes out in the wash.

That said, if the four dioceses don’t show sharp drops in ASA, There Are Going To Be Questions.

C. Wingate, what Keller likely meant is that Dr. (Kurt?) Hardaway has for the last few years provided his TEC employers with some surprisingly frank and unvarnished membership numbers for TEC as a whole and his evaluation of those drastically declining numbers and aging demographic that TEC is in serious danger of extinction in the forseeable future.  So, presumably, firing Dr. Hardaway would allow Jefferts-Schori, Anderson, et al to spin the membership trends any way way they wanted to without the inconvenient hard data to cloud the sunny picture.

Ken, we go around this over and over again. Membership numbers are inflated by people who are inactive but who have not yet been taken off the rolls. These tend to get purged at intervals rather than continuously. It creates a certain degree of inaccuracy and makes individual parish membership numbers unreliable, but as far as diocesan aggregate numbers are concerned, it comes out in the wash.

ROTFLMHO!

The “aggregation” of inflated numbers is necessarily also inflated—accuracy is not improved by summing inaccurate numbers.

I would gather that if the Jones move from Parish A to Parish B in the same diocese, they end up getting counted as “baptized members” in both places. There are reports that the “Letter of Transfer” system doesn’t work—that the “sending parish doesn’t send or remove the member from the rolls and the “receiving parish simply adds them to their rolls. I know of one person who claimed membership in four different parishes in the same diocese. Of course, that was California, where they do things differently.

It should be noted that the “baptized members” number becomes the basis for the number of votes a parish gets in diocesan convention in most places, so there is a motivation for keeping that number a big as possible.

Yes, ASA and Plate & Pledge figures—even though exaggerated at both the parish and diocesan levels (not to mention the national level)—are better indicators.

But diocesan figures are at least as inaccurate as the parish reports on which they are based. Probably even more so in those cases where dioceses are taking the figures from the last received parochial report even though that was several years ago.

Well, it seems that if you keep counting all those members, parishes and dioceses that have left TGC forever, things look pretty good.  I’m going to start doing that with my checkbook…the possibilities are endless!

..................................2006   2007   2008   2009
Domestic Parishes and Missions   7,095   7,055   6,956 6,752
Active Baptized Members       2.15mm   2.12mm 2.03mm 1.99mm
Average Pledge             $2,088 $2,190 $2,069 $2,012

ugh forgot ASA
Total Average Sunday Worship Attendance (ASA)
765,326 727,822 669,218 589,146

hey festivus, where are you getting those numbers?

I understand now that the Pittsburgh decision is in, they are going back and adding the dioceses/churches that left in order to build up the numbers, therefore the delay in releasing numbers from the past two years of exits. In Feb 2009 ACNA announced it had 693 congregations with a total average Sunday attendance (ASA) of 83,311. But hey - they have to show growth somewhere, right?

Matt+ - my source, code name “Deep Throat”. Then again, I could be being fed garbage. But hey, how can you tell with the way TEC has been inventing numbers from the past 6 years?

If your source is accurate that ASA number is stunning:

589,146

Festivus - you say they are adding the churches in that left?  Good grief.  The decision in Pittsburgh had nothing to do with parish property, and, even if it did, the people would still be GONE.

589,146 is a 2009 est. number. Keep in mind too that the charts on the web server 12.0.101.92 from 2008 continue to show some churches that have left TEC. I guess you count’em as yours until a judge says otherwise.

Well, it will be interesting to see what plays out in the final numbers. Trust, but verify, as I am sure that will be done in the coming months.

#68 Phil - TEC counts the roll called down yonder. Once on the parish list, neither death, heresy, nor moving jurisdiction removes you. Or persistent calls to the diocese to remove you from the monthly newsletter.

so according to your source 669,218 is the ASA for 08?

“I know of one person who claimed membership in four different parishes in the same diocese. Of course, that was California, where they do things differently.”

Well, I can see where an LGBTC person may NEED four parishes, given how inclinations can change from day to day…

Interesting figures. They show an 8% decrease from 2007 to 2008. If the 2009 figure were to materialize, that would be a 19% drop between 2007 and 2008. A rather significant decline over 2 years.

Yikes.  I’ve crunched TEC numbers for 6 years, and if Festivus’ numbers are correct, WOW.  I thought I was past being surprised, but I guess not.

Correction on #74: “that would be a 19% drop between 2007 and 2008” should be “that would be a 19% drop between 2007 and 2009”.

Also, trending the decline out based of these numbers, assuming no further mass exodus, the EC would prttey much cease to exist by 2018. Just think, they’re sitting there at 815 trying to figure out how to make the trend line go the other way

Fisherman said:

Also, trending the decline out based of these numbers, assuming no further mass exodus, the EC would pretty much cease to exist by 2018.

But…what about the signing of the Covenant??
Takes care of that nasty little bit of business doesn’t it.
Intercessor

BTW Greg…this story ranks right up there with the camera entering the stolen St.Hilda’s on Easter Sunday (population 9).
Job well done.
Intercessor

Is this where Bp. Bruno spouts off: “Not in my Diocese!!”
Just wonderin’
Intercessor

Looks like Fr. Jake did a fantastic job as evangelism coordinator

Wow.  Under 600G.  That’s ugly.

#80: Yeah, who needs evangelisam anyway. TEC can get along without it. Sure.

If this keeps up, then pretty soon they will be able use the I am Episcopalian web site as a comprehensive TEC directory.

The Episcopal Church Welcomes You! Who?

Rightsizing to a more perfect inclusivity for over four decades!

I’d take Festivus’ numbers with a grain of salt right now.  TGC has been losing about 23,000 ASA for the past few years, and I don’t see anything (outside of entire dioceses leaving) that would accelerate that trend.  And the dioceses that left only had a combined ASA of about 18,000.

Festivus, your 2008 numbers for members and ASA are pretty close to my estimates. 2009 numbers? From which planet? Looking at the parish numbers, I note that the 303 difference between 2007 and 2009 far exceeds the 189 parishes in the four dioceses; even the difference given between 2008 and 2009 exceeds this.

In the Committee’s section on mission, I found this very strange connection between the Diocese of Peru (Southern Cone) and the Diocese of Florida.  Isn’t it odd that there be a connection between any of the Florida dioceses and the diocese of Peru.  Anyone care to illuminate?

<blockquote>”... recognize a new companion diocese relationship between the Diocese of Florida and the Diocese of Peru in the Anglican Church of the Southern Cone of the
Americas for a period ending on December 31, 2013, unless extended or terminated by mutual consent (WM002).</blockquote

The Diocean charts do not reflect the departing dioceses other than San Joachim.  So 2009 will look painful in FT Worth, Pittsburg and Quincy.  But in each Diocese where the battle has been fought deep declines (ie Dallas (loss of Plano and a few others), Virginia, Florida, SW Florida, Georgia, Rio Grande, NW Texas). If the fight gets serious in SC, upper SC, the other Virginia Dioceses, Western La, Springfield, Albany, Tenn. Kansas, Texas and West Texas - all of which I am sure are being closely watched then the decline could become marked. 
Again if the ACNA gets serious about Church planting or splintering occurs like we just saw in a Mass Parish - then TEC could yet experience a blood bath.  ACNA’s existence should add 1-2% a year more to the rate of decline just because of competition.  When TEC people move the ties to the old parish are removed and they can then choose if they have two options presented.

It’s “SAN JOAQUIN,” chips!

In the few churches I know anything about, the ASA lines are identical for last two years.  Something is amiss.

Gene Robinson was spouting off a couple of months ago about how his diocese was now “growing.” As I suspected, membership is up but attendance is down meaning that Gene told his gang not to clear anyone from the books. http://tinyurl.com/yfhzup6

Just think, they’re sitting there at 815 trying to figure out how to make the trend line go the other way.

All they have to do is rotate the chart 90°.

All is well.

It’s only a matter of time before they start counting the animal companions that show up on St Francis’ day as part of the ASA.

#91: Brilliant! Done! Cocktails anyone?
Intercessor

P.S. All is Well…
Intercessor

Meanwhile from the Mole:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1owcncKCHg

>It’s only a matter of time before they start counting the animal companions that show up on St Francis’ day as part of the ASA.

Or, as those who have introduced the ‘women’s liturgies’ would call them…

Familiars.

I have to say that the 589,146 ASA figure is pretty stunning but when I looked at the 2007 figures of 727 thousand odd it became clear that if one took out the foreign territories included in domestic provinces that the mainland church was much smaller than indicated.  If you then reckon on the overcounting and inclusion of departed individuals, congregations and dioceses then this figure is not on the face of it unrealistic and could even be overstated.

Meanwhile the trusts are being spent and possibly have been spent on litigation, the appeal is out for more funds for litigation and evangelism and mission are on hold.  It looks as if ACNA may already be a quarter of the size TEC has become.

How to destroy a church in one easy lesson.

I did a more or less random sampling of parish charts and found St. Mary’s, Richmond VA: membership 2000, ASA 200+. Bet that’s the biggest difference between baptised membership and average Sunday attendance in TEC.  Frances Scott

That is a bigger one year drop than anyone was expecting.  ASA dropped 58,604 from 2007 - 2008, if these numbers are correct.  I thought there would be a drop in the 20k - 25k range and accelerating after GC2009. 

All I can say is wow!  and “who wants to jump the shark?”

Just reading the statistics from my home state of New Jersey - if most of these places belonged to an RC Diocese, anywhere in the USA, they would be CLOSED. Was really surprised to see the drop at Trinity, Princeton, probably the largest TEc franchise in NJ.

#91 - 180 degrees

#93 - Yes

If Festivus’ numbers are correct about membership decline, the TEclub will have dropped 4.5%, definitely a contender for fastest declining. It was the fastest declining last year. This year, that honor went to the even more liberal UCC which had dropped a breathtaking 6.25% in one year.

You know, a little statistical analysis leads me to conclude that if the present trends keep up, in about 10 years, TEC will have 1.4 million members.

None of whom will go to church.

Heh.

Their numbers may drop even more if this awesome story is any indication:
http://www.anglican-mainstream.net/?p=16121

OK, I went through the list. Here are the domestic dioceses whose attendance grew: Indianapolis, Navajo Mission, Nevada, North Dakota, San Diego, South Carolina, West Missouri, Wyoming.

There might be a few more that grew by an itsy bitsy bit (e.g., Dallas). I simply eyeballed the graphs.

The following dioceses’ links were messed up: Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Milwaukee.

Big surprise. How could the numbers be anything but down with the flood of departing dioceses, parishes, and even convents that have continued to leave in droves.  I suspect that TEC leadership really doesn’t care that much; except that it looks bad and makes more folks antsy about staying.  So much for “fiduciary responsibility”, let alone the Gospel mandate.  When the numbers are released (and they can’t stall forever), I imagine that lying about them will be added to the sins already counted. 

“Thou shalt not take the Name of the Lord thy God in vain.”

Some time back, I saw a TEC graph.  Despite the controversy of women’s ordination, there was a plateau during PB Allin’s years.  The decline began during PB Browning’s era and has continued.
Denominations/religions that are growing in the US include the RCC, Southern Baptists, Assemblies of God, Mormonism.  What do they hold in common?  Not much.  They do have institutional policies opposed to abortion.  That’s not to say that individuals within those institutions don’t obtain abortions, but the institutions set a standard.
Has a church growth expert analyzed this variable?  I’m guessing it is statistically significant.
PB Browning was the first to make pro-choice initiatives at a national level.
StandFirm did not pick up the pro-life banner until the Executive Council joined the Religious Coalition for Reproductive Choice in Jan 2006.  (Thank you for your boldness, Greg.)  It was in 2006 that the current team of writers came together and its traffic went through the roof. 
Our God is a God at hand, rather than far off.  He sees inside the womb. (Jer 23:23-24).  I think God makes His face to shine upon the pro-life church.

I think that the Roman Church, Southern Baptists, Assemblies of God and Mormons all hold to rather clear cut standards of doctrine and discipline which, while including opposition to abortion, include a wide range of things both theological and “practical”. They obviously disagree between the groups as to what those standards are, but within each group the standards are quite clear—even if some members fudge.

Similarly if the decline of TEC began during Browning’s tenure as PB, there may be a whole variety of factors dating to that time including his advocacy of partnered gay clergy, failure to discipline Spong, the Righter Trial, the Ellen Cook scandal, tolerance of virtually every heresy, etc.

It could be that prior to the rather underhanded support for RCRC (I don’t think that has ever come before General Convention), the official stance of TEC in numerous resolutions was opposed to abortion except in a limited number of special circumstances (such as rape, incest or to save the life of the mother).

My experience is as a catholic in TEC; I can’t really speak for the evangelicals or charismatics. With regard to the ordination of women, you may recall that there were assurances made at the time that catholics would be allowed to free exercise of conscience. Many believed that if those who violated the clear doctrine and discipline of TEC (e.g., Bishops Spong, Righter et al.) were to be tolerated, then those to held to catholic doctrine and discipline (including the male priesthood) would also be tolerated. Several things over the years made it clear that this was not to be the case. For example, the “discernment process” was used in all but a few dioceses to exclude any catholic minded layman from a priestly vocation, thus seriously restricting the pool of catholic minded clergy. Furthermore, many dioceses prevented parishes from calling catholic minded rectors. The passage of the anti-discrimination canon was more evidence, as was the inquisition sent to the dioceses of Fon du Lac, Fort Worth, San Joaquin and Quincy. It was being made clear that catholic parishes could not have catholic clergy and that catholic dioceses could not have catholic bishops. And this is a major factor in the departure of some parishes and of the dioceses of Fort Worth, Quincy and San Joaquin.

I think one of the amazing developments in this century has been the “merger” of catholics, evangelicals and charismatics and the appearance of alternatives for them. But for all of these departing groups there is a wide range of disagreements with the TEC as it stands today—it’s tolerance of non-Christian religious practice within TEC by clergy, it’s tolerance rank theological heresy cutting to the heart of the Apostles’ and Nicene Creeds, it’s degrading of the place, authority and interpretation of the canonical Holy Scripture (and the substitution of Gnostic and other non-Christian writings it its place), it’s ever weakening stance on marriage and sexuality (including the matter of abortion) etc. And at least for catholics the liturgical outrages being perpetrated.

We continue to “bounce around” after leave TEC nearly three years ago, spending most Sundays at a packed EP church with excellent preaching and well attended gospel-oriented youth programs.  We see so many friends there from our kids’ Christian school.
Every now and then we get deluded into thinking one of the Episcopal parishes on the fringes of the county might be orthodox, and we go to check it out because we are starved for liturgy and the sacrament of communion (vs grape juice and saltines.) 
Inevitably, we cannot tell if it’s orthodox because nothing really differentiates it from the church we left, and there are only ten or twelve people present anyway, sometimes none under the age of fifty.  As we drive home, we see the packed parking lots at the two EP churches on the way, as well as at the HUGE Baptist church down the road, the non-denominational (but biblical) “Christian Fellowship” church, and the Catholic church (a small building with so many cars it’s almost comical.)

Even our 15 year old gets it at that point.  How come TEC can’t????
TEC says it likes to speak in narratives (and here we see that they don’t like to speak in numbers.)  The narratives tell the same story - But no one at 815 is listening.

Another factor to consider in the decline in attendance in The Episcopal Church is the general decline in church attendance. Even the SBC reports a drop in attendance. Do not be surprised if 815 attributes TEC’s decline to the general decline.

A problem that confronts those of us who live in the “fly-over” area of the United States is that there is no real alternative Anglican presence to TEC. Most of the new alternative Anglican churches are being planted in urban and suburban areas where TEC itself has historically been successful, not in rural areas and small towns.

#109 (or those in the know)
Please attribute my ignorance to insufficient coffee and Anglican Acronym Overload Syndrome (AAOS), but what is an “EP church”?

Could EP = Evangelical Protestant?

The Orthodox churches of various ethnicities haven’t been mentioned but they too have standards that are preached by the clergy. I don’t know about their national numbers but the mission I’ve joined seems to be growing - keeping the founding members and welcoming new folks.

Just a guess on EP.  It might be an Evangelical Presbyterian Church.

carl

The Orthodox churches of various ethnicities haven’t been mentioned but they too have standards that are preached by the clergy. I don’t know about their national numbers but the mission I’ve joined seems to be growing - keeping the founding members and welcoming new folks.

I’ve not come up with statistics on the Orthodox Churches in America—I keep coming up with OCA:

“According to the 2006 edition of the Yearbook of American and Canadian Churches, the OCA has 1,064,000 members, an increase of 6.4 percent from 2005. This figure places the OCA as the 24th largest Christian denomination in the United States, and second to the Greek Orthodox Archdiocese of America.”
OCA

But my understanding is that the Greek and Antiochian Orthodox Churches in the U.S. are also growing. At least that is my observation in the parishes of the Greek, OCA and Antiochian parishes here. If the figures for TEC and OCA continue, the latter may soon outnumber the former. Of course they are being fed in part by departing Episcopalians.

Yes, EP is Evangelical Presbyterian, and we have several EP churches in our area, all spiritually alive and growing by leaps and bounds.  The one we attend has done such a great job hosting a “5th Quarter” ministry after the local high school football games (300+ kids at a park across from the school having food, bonfires, and wholesome fun, chaperoned by church volunteers) that the school asked the church volunteers to chaperone the homecoming dance.  Unbelievable

They also have missionaries everywhere - India, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, etc.  I can’t get over how they easily support their physical plant and staffing needs with so little of the budget and instead focus on outreach and mission.

The other EP church in Annapolis started the Annapolis Area Christian School 30 years ago, which is now its own entity separate from the church, but has grown to a three campus K-12 college prep Christian school that is rated as one of the top ten in the US.  This is where I work and our children have gone to school.  It’s non-denominational, and has a statement of faith that families must ascribe to.  For the years I taught there and was at an Episcopal Church, the admission application would “wig out” anyone from my own parish because they hadn’t the faintest idea how to explain things about their faith. Sigh.

The reason I share all this is to reinforce the point that orthodox churches - Those that have “right” doctrine”-  Are doing well, whether they are EP, Baptsist, Greek Orthodox, Catholic, etc.  They are involved in ministry, evangelizism, youth programs, and education, and that is good news.  Just not for TEC.

The numbers in the Dio of CT must not be good; our newsletter just showed up, page 2 with a special feature on the spiritual benefits of closing parishes. 

/sarc off

The numbers in the Dio of CT must not be good; our newsletter just showed up, page 2 with a special feature on the spiritual benefits of closing parishes.

Don’t ever kid yourself, Elanor, TGC worships death, from VGR’s encomia to fruitless homosexual rutting to Ragsdale’s love of slaughtered babies.  The latest spin on the inevitable implosion of parishes is just incorporating this love of decay and annihilation.

Must. Have. Been. A. Slow. News. Day.

Well, 118 was a cross post.

I went and ran through the combined Dio numbers that are reported. If this is correct, 2008 has an ASA of 762K, meaning the TEC strategy is growing the church. Now am I really confused on what I was told. DT has some ‘splanin to do.

Festivus,

Where are you getting actual Diocesan ASA numbers for 2008?

118 and 119-
Remember also that TEC reports numbers of 10 (or so) dioceses outside the USA- so make sure you are comparing apples to apples- there are lots of folks in some of the “foreign” dioceses who do NOT count toward the most frequently quoted number- domestic ASA, and remember that 2008 numbers still include 3 dioceses that are gone.

Also worth considering- No matter what the 2008 numbers are saying, the EC was also dealing with the “early returns” of the GC09- like bishops and rectors calling in to report big drops in pledges to major parishes, drops in cathedral attendance, things like that.

Note to TEC, as of 5:18 pm, EST, I cannot access the parish reports page on TEC’s site- and none of the parish report links in comments above are working, at least not via my net provider.  Any one else want to give it a try?

TJ, where are you looking? I just pulled up a parish report with 2008 numbers for a church (picked at random) in Dawson, Ga. - from the Growth and Development page. Is that where you were looking?

#123, as of a minute or so ago, this link worked for me. Sometimes I have to allow the poky 815 servers catch up with me, but it usually works.

Thanks all, yep, must have been a momentary glitch.
So far, checking the first 40 domestic dioceses, only one showed even tiny growth, all the rest are down.  So, unless there are big surprises in the other 60, or somebody cooked the books, I can hardly see how numbers could possibly compare favorably with last year.

I don’t know how bad the latest numbers are,but I feel confident that they are not good news. If the numbers were good, TEC would be shouting them from the roof tops. ASA was either stagnant or negative.

Well, I don’t know who will see it as good news or bad news, but if my addition skills have held up, and my bifocals are working on the little charts, I come up with an estimate of 706,000 based on the info in the charts, for TEC’s domestic dioceses. That vs. 727,000 for domestic dioceses in 2007.  Note that the 706K figure includes 28,000 parishioners in Ft. Worth, Quincy and Pittsburgh. If only 1/2 of those folks left with their dioceses, the ASA is well below 700K. Take a look at what happened in San Joaquin to give an idea of what might be expected at least in Ft. Worth and Quincy, although Pittsburgh sounds more like a 60-40 split:
http://12.0.101.92/reports/PR_ChartsDemo/exports/ParishRPT_1012200992231PM.pdf

Given the size of some of the foreign dioceses (some a large and some tiny), I would think that, unless TEC doctored its numbers on the charts to make things look worse than they really are, the 762K number given above by Festivus in 119, if accurate, would include the foreign dioceses.  But I guess I will have to leave that calculation up to him and his secret source on the executive council.

The information shown at http://12.0.101.92/Charts.aspx includes parishes that have left TEC, including mine, St. Barnabas in Bay Village, Ohio.  The numbers are shown as flat since 2004, but I assume they’re still being counted as they haven’t been removed entirely.

we don’t really need to know the numbers, just talk to the people left and in every case I have found that the numbers are way down, now granted I have only been in churches in North and South Carolina, and in Virginia, but I blog with people all across the country and in a few foreign countries and its the same, people leaving , just leaving to they don’t know where, people leaving for other specific churches, people leaving church…the Tec agenda has done will in getting rid of the “deadwood”

TEC reminds me of the Chicago Democratic Machine: They count everyone who ever thought about belonging… they count those in the graveyard… I imagine that they count members of other churches… Don’t look at average Sunday attendance, don"t look at the numbers on the books… how many TEC churches are in serious financial trouble? That is the only number that matters. As the money dries up, churches close and property is sold off… Those are the numbers that matter.

right

Here are some <a href=“http://www.episcopalchurch.org/documents/Statisical_Totals_for_the_Episcopal_Church_by_Province_2007-2008.pdf”> of ASA and Membership:

Domestic ASA:
2007 2008 and percent change:
727,822 705,257 -3.1%

Domestic membership:
2007 2008 and percent change:
2,116,749 2,057,292 -2.8%

Festivus (#62 and 63) was off a little.

And the biggest losers? We have diocesan numbers for attendance:

# 1 is San Joaquin with a 77% drop! Wu-hoo.
# 2 is South Dakota with an 11.7% drop (you think the leadership will start listening to Father Tim?)
# 3 and # 4 are West Virginia and Alaska with drops of 8.9% and 8.8%, respectively.

The biggest winners? North Dakota (+6.1%), Wyoming (+4.6%), West Missouri (+3.5%), Hawaii (2.5%) and South Carolina (+2.2%).

Finally, we have this report that looks a 2004-2008 data:
                                       
Ten Year % Change in Active Members (sort of a moving average) from 2004 to 2008: -7% -8% -9% -10% -11%

Ten Year % Change in ASA from 2004 to 2008: -4% -6% -9% -13% -16%

Accelerating to oblivion!

Gee, Robroy, if you had come in with that yesterday, you would have saved me all that addition (although I came in pretty close, with an estimate of 706000 vs real number of 705,257).
Festivus, as some of us suspected, had the number that included estimated numbers for the non-domestic dioceses.

Again, do note that the 2008 numbers include the 3 dioceses that left (as though they had not left).  So, we won’t see the impact of that until this time next year, and the real impact of GC won’t show up in the stats until the year after that.

Do note that (San Joaquin excepted) most of the dioceses with big swings one way or the other are very small dioceses- where gaining or losing one family can be a percentage difference.  I wonder too, noting that some are “mutual ministry” dioceses, if they have taken to doing what some are reported to be doing here- adding midweek service attendance to ASA.  Could get a nice boost in the percentages for your parish if you add those 8-10 folks who show up on Wednesday.

Sorry, one more. Bdino, above, asks about money. From the report linked in the last note, we have:

Plate & Pledge % Change From Previous Year
+1.3% +2.9% +2.5% +1.3% -0.2%
Inflation Rate in Calendar Year        
+2.7% +3.4% +3.2% +2.8% +3.8%

Thus, we have five years of P&P increases (or decrease in the case of 2008) significantly below the rate of inflation.

TJ, indeed you were very close. An award of a (spray painted) gold pocket protector is in the mail.