What Happened Last Night
Here’s the analysis of last night’s presidential debate that you aren’t seeing anywhere else (at least I’m not seeing it). It comes from America’s least known but most accurate political analyst–me:
Mitt Romney had two primary tasks last night. The first was to demonstrate that he has the knowledge and understanding of America’s problems, and a conception of how to deal with them, that is required in a president. He had to demonstrate that he is neither a right-wing monster, nor a bloody-fanged capitalist who cares for no one but his fellow plutocrats. He had to create the impression that he is presidential, and ready to take office. Whether you agree with any particular policy prescriptions he had, he made that case.
Second, he had to either elevate himself to Barack Obama’s level, or bring the president down to his, or both. By that I mean that he had to re-mold perceptions so that the election is no longer between an experienced president and a wannabe. He needed to make clear that he is as ready for prime time, if not more so, than the incumbent. Once again, I think he did so, helped out by an opponent who seemingly wanted to be anywhere but where he was, who seemed irritated at times that Romney had the temerity to disagree with him, and who appeared hopelessly unprepared at others.
Why is this all important? Because Barack Obama has never gotten over the 50% hump. Throughout this year, the percentage of the electorate that has said he deserves another term has been less than half. What that says is that more than half of voting-age Americans want to see someone else in the White House. Until now, however, at least some portion of that majority has had enough reservations about Romney that they would either have stayed home, or would have drifted to the natural default of going with the devil you know, much as they would have preferred not to. All year, Romney has had to convince that portion of the majority that he was up to the job, and that they could with some degree of confidence vote for him knowing that he would be at least as capable, and very possibly more so, than the incumbent. I think Romney crossed that threshold last night, and if so, I predict that we could see a swing that sends not only most of the undecideds his way, but also that he peels off at least 1-3% of Obama’s most tenuous supporters.
None of this is to say that last night was decisive, or that the election is over by any means. But I do think that Romney is now the favorite, and could well surprise the experts with the percentage of the popular vote that he receives.
Discuss.
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6 comments
You are a racist and a hater who has declared war on women.
OK, that was just for fun, but it points at something that might favor the President and allow him to gain back ground via the debates:
They got into areas where Romney had some strength (and where the Pres. is weak) last night. I knew the Pres. was sunk with the very first question last night, in which he began his tired litany of blaming economic woes on what he “inherited.” He didn’t name former Pres. Bush, but that’s all he’s ever had when it comes to economic questions.
But subsequent debates will get into defense/global issues and domestic social issues. So the Pres. can go on and on about bin Laden and Romney having no comparable experience (state governors seldom getting to call drone strikes or SEAL raids), and then it is on to “the war on women.”
So the first debate gave Romney some traction with people thinking about the mess we are in; the next couple will favor Obama as he panders to his base and to the Honey Boo Boo viewers.
[1] Posted by Timothy Fountain on 10-4-2012 at 10:22 AM · [top]
With regard to the defense/FP debate, one word for you: Libya. The last thing Obama will want to do is discuss it, and he will be forced to. I doubt that Romney could gain any traction on Iran, but he might on Israel, but Libya is going to be impossible for the president to paper over.
On social issues, Romney will be walking a fine line, but I think he can do some damage by reminding (or informing) America about the abortion-palooza the Democrats had in Charlotte. He might also bring up Obama’s support of infanticide if he’s really feeling frisky.
Again, the important thing, I think, is not on the specific policy questions nearly so much as, is this guy ready? That was the question that the 1980 Carter-Reagan debate answered, and while it may not have given Reagan the election, it almost certainly made the margin bigger than it would have been otherwise. Because this one is so close, it could be a tipping point based on Romney proving himself ready for action.
[2] Posted by David Fischler on 10-4-2012 at 10:54 AM · [top]
Oh, I forgot to add that at this point, the more Obama panders to his base in a setting like this, the worse it will go for him. This is still basically a center-right country (even if the emphasis is on the center), and to the extent that it looks like the president has gone off to the far left, the more he alienates moderates (it isn’t only Republicans that have that problem dynamic, no matter how much the press likes to give that impression).
[3] Posted by David Fischler on 10-4-2012 at 10:57 AM · [top]
I would love to hear Romney pound both Libya and “Fast and Furious” in the debates. This is an administration full of incompetence and, in some cases, corruption. Needs to be outed.
[4] Posted by Timothy Fountain on 10-4-2012 at 11:04 AM · [top]
We saw what happens when there is no teleprompter. Michael Moore said that, after the debate he saw, he would not be surprised if Obama voted for Romney.
[5] Posted by Pb on 10-4-2012 at 02:02 PM · [top]
Foreign policy and defense: one word for you, Islam. And two words to really nail that down: Radical Islam. That subject is so fertile, and the Obama administration’s record on this subject that is so poor, that Romney only has to do one thing: Put America First!!!!!!!!!
[6] Posted by Capt. Father Warren on 10-4-2012 at 08:06 PM · [top]
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